Three quarters into 2019, Memphis has already recorded more than 160 homicides. That number sits higher than the same period last year, and it doesn’t account for the seasonal spike that typically hits between October and December. For anyone working in private security, property management, or community safety, the data paints a familiar and uncomfortable picture.
Director Michael Rallings and the Memphis Police Department have pushed back on the narrative that the city is losing ground. MPD’s community policing initiatives, the Real Time Crime Center, and targeted operations in high-crime areas have produced results in some categories. Aggravated assaults dropped slightly in certain precincts during the summer months. Property crime numbers showed modest improvement in Midtown and parts of East Memphis. Still, the homicide count keeps climbing, and that single statistic dominates the conversation.
The Numbers Through September
Memphis closed 2018 with 184 homicides. Through the first nine months of 2019, the city was tracking ahead of that pace, with credible projections putting the year-end total somewhere between 185 and 200. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report for 2018 had already placed Memphis among the top five most dangerous cities per capita in the country. Nobody expects the 2019 numbers to change that ranking.
What’s worth noting is where these homicides are concentrated. Frayser, Whitehaven, Hickory Hill, and Orange Mound continue to carry a disproportionate share of violent crime. The 38127 zip code (Frayser) has been a persistent hot spot for years, and 2019 hasn’t changed that pattern. Raleigh has seen an uptick in aggravated assaults tied to convenience store robberies, a trend that’s been building since late spring.
Downtown Memphis tells a different story. The tourist corridor along Beale Street and the riverfront has remained relatively safe, thanks in part to heavy police presence and a network of surveillance cameras feeding into the Real Time Crime Center. Midtown, too, has seen lower violent crime numbers compared to five years ago, though property crime (car break-ins, package theft) remains a persistent annoyance for residents in the Cooper-Young and Overton Park areas.
Q4: Historically the Worst Quarter
If the pattern holds, October through December will be the deadliest stretch of the year. This isn’t unique to Memphis. Cities across the South see violent crime tick upward in the fall, driven by a mix of factors that criminologists have debated for decades. In Memphis specifically, the holiday season brings increased retail activity, more cash transactions, and more opportunities for robbery. Domestic disputes tend to escalate during the holidays. Gang activity doesn’t slow down when the temperature drops.
Last year’s Q4 accounted for roughly 25% of the city’s total homicides. If 2019 follows the same trajectory, Memphis could finish the year north of 190. That would mark the third consecutive year of rising homicide numbers, a trend that nobody in city government wants to acknowledge publicly.
For security companies operating in Shelby County, Q4 means overtime. Retail clients in Cordova and Germantown ramp up their guard requests starting in mid-October. Warehouse and distribution centers along the I-40 corridor bring on seasonal staff and need additional overnight coverage. Property managers in Hickory Hill and Whitehaven, already dealing with elevated crime throughout the year, tend to increase patrol frequency as the holidays approach.
MPD’s Response and Its Limits
Director Rallings has been vocal about what he sees as the root causes: poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and a revolving door in the criminal justice system. He’s not wrong on any count, but those structural issues don’t get solved in a budget cycle. In the meantime, MPD is working with what it has.
The department’s Real Time Crime Center, which monitors over 2,000 cameras across the city, has been a genuine asset for investigations. When a shooting happens in South Memphis, analysts can pull footage from nearby cameras within minutes, feeding descriptions and vehicle information to officers in the field. The system has contributed to faster arrest times in several high-profile cases this year.
Yet the RTCC is a reactive tool, not a preventive one. It helps solve crimes after they happen. It doesn’t stop a 19-year-old in Frayser from pulling a trigger over a social media dispute. MPD’s Blue Crush data analytics program, which uses historical crime data to predict where incidents are likely to occur, has had mixed results. Officers deployed to predicted hot spots can deter some crimes, sure. They can also end up sitting in a parking lot for four hours while someone gets shot three blocks outside the target zone.
Community policing efforts have gained some traction in neighborhoods like Binghampton and Uptown, where officers attend neighborhood association meetings and know residents by name. These programs take years to produce measurable results, though, and they’re vulnerable to budget cuts and personnel turnover.
What This Means for Private Security
The gap between what MPD can cover and what the city actually needs is where private security fills in. Memphis has roughly 2,000 sworn officers for a city of 650,000 people. That ratio has been a problem for years, and recruitment hasn’t kept pace with attrition.
Private security companies have picked up the slack, particularly in commercial corridors and residential communities that can afford the cost. The demand for armed and unarmed guards in Memphis has grown steadily since 2016, and 2019 is no exception. Companies like Allied Universal, Securitas, and several smaller local firms are all competing for contracts in a market where qualified candidates are increasingly hard to find.
The hiring challenge is real. Tennessee’s licensing requirements through TDCI’s Private Protective Services division mean that every guard needs a background check, fingerprinting through IdentoGO, and, for armed positions, firearms qualification. The process takes weeks, sometimes longer. When a retail client in Wolfchase calls in September asking for four additional guards by October 15, the timeline doesn’t always work out.
Smaller firms have an advantage here. They tend to maintain a roster of pre-qualified, registered guards who can deploy quickly. Larger national companies have deeper pockets and brand recognition, but their onboarding process can be slower. For property managers trying to get coverage in place before the holiday rush, that difference matters.
Neighborhood-Level Risk Assessment
Security professionals who work Memphis know that a citywide crime rate tells you almost nothing useful. The difference between Germantown and Frayser, separated by about 20 miles, is the difference between one of the safest suburbs in Tennessee and one of the most dangerous neighborhoods in the country. Any serious risk assessment has to work at the neighborhood level.
Here’s what we’re tracking heading into Q4:
Frayser (38127): Homicides, aggravated assaults, and armed robberies all remain elevated. Gas stations and convenience stores along North Watkins and Thomas Street are frequent targets. Security companies operating here need armed officers, period.
Whitehaven (38116): The area around Graceland and Elvis Presley Boulevard sees tourist-related property crime, but the residential areas east of Shelby Drive have serious violent crime issues. Carjackings have been a particular concern through 2019.
Hickory Hill (38115/38118): Once a thriving middle-class suburb, Hickory Hill has experienced significant demographic and economic shifts. Apartment complexes in the area generate a high volume of police calls. Security contracts for multi-family properties here are competitive and price-sensitive.
Cordova (38016/38018): Mostly retail-focused crime. Shoplifting, smash-and-grab car break-ins in shopping center parking lots, and occasional armed robbery at restaurants or small businesses. The Wolfchase area stays busy for security providers.
Downtown/South Main (38103): Lower violent crime, higher property crime. The convention center, hotels, and entertainment venues drive demand for event security and overnight patrol.
Orange Mound (38111/38114): One of the oldest African-American neighborhoods in the country, Orange Mound has deep community ties but persistent crime challenges. Drug-related violence remains the primary concern. Security companies working here need officers who understand the community and can maintain a visible presence without creating friction.
The Bigger Picture
Memphis’s crime problem didn’t start in 2019, and it won’t end here. The city has been wrestling with violence, poverty, and institutional neglect for decades. What’s changed is the demand for private security as a supplement to — and sometimes a substitute for — public policing.
That demand creates opportunity for security companies, absolutely. It also creates responsibility. The firms that do well in Memphis long-term are the ones that invest in their people, maintain proper licensing, and treat their clients’ properties like they matter.
We’ll keep tracking the numbers through Q4 and into 2020. If you’re in the security business in Shelby County, the next 90 days are going to be busy. Plan accordingly.
Marcus Johnson covers crime, public safety, and private security for Memphis Security Insider. He can be reached at [email protected].