The year isn’t technically over, yet the numbers are clear enough to draw conclusions. Memphis in 2019 became a more violent city by one measure and a slightly safer one by several others. The security industry grew in response, and the companies that adapted fastest are the ones heading into 2020 with full client rosters and hiring needs they can’t fill.
Here’s what the data says, what it means for the security market, and where things are likely headed.
The Crime Picture: Complicated, Not Simple
Memphis will finish 2019 with approximately 190 homicides, give or take a few depending on how the final week plays out. That’s up from 184 in 2018 and 180 in 2017. Three consecutive years of increases. The trend line is moving the wrong direction, and anyone claiming otherwise is selling something.
At the same time, overall violent crime in Memphis dropped about 6% through the first three quarters of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. Aggravated assaults declined. Robberies fell. The homicide number gets the headlines, and it should, because each one represents a human life lost. Still, the broader violent crime picture tells a more complicated story than “Memphis is getting more dangerous.”
Property crime fell slightly in several categories. Residential burglaries dropped compared to 2018, continuing a multi-year downward trend that MPD attributes partly to increased home security camera adoption and partly to more focused patrol strategies. Auto theft, though, remains stubbornly high. Memphis consistently ranks among the top cities in the nation for vehicle theft per capita, and 2019 didn’t change that.
The Memphis Police Department ended the year with a sworn force of roughly 2,000 officers, down from a peak of around 2,500 in the early 2010s. Recruiting and retention remain serious challenges. Starting pay for MPD officers is competitive within Tennessee, yet it lags behind suburban departments in Germantown, Collierville, and Bartlett. Officers frequently leave MPD for suburban agencies that offer better pay, lower call volume, and fewer overtime mandates.
Director Michael Rallings has been vocal about the staffing shortage throughout 2019, calling it the department’s single biggest operational challenge. Fewer officers means slower response times, which means businesses and residents increasingly look to private security to fill the gap.
Market Growth: Demand Outpacing Supply
The private security industry in Memphis grew in 2019 by virtually every measure. More contracts were signed. More guard hours were billed. More companies entered the market. The growth was driven by the same factors that have fueled it nationally: rising crime concerns, police staffing shortages, and a growing acceptance that private security is a normal cost of doing business.
Industry data from IBIS World estimates that the U.S. security guard and patrol services market generated about $30 billion in revenue in 2019, with growth of roughly 3% over 2018. Memphis tracks somewhat above the national average because of its higher crime rate and the resulting demand for security services.
The local market breaks into three tiers:
National firms. Allied Universal, Securitas, and G4S maintain significant operations in Memphis. Allied Universal and G4S announced merger discussions in 2019, a deal that would create the world’s largest security company. If completed, the combined entity would hold enormous market share in Memphis, particularly in distribution and logistics security around the airport corridor.
Regional firms. Companies like Walden Security (Chattanooga-based, with Memphis operations) and several Nashville-area firms have expanded their Memphis footprint. These companies offer a middle ground: more resources than a small local outfit, more regional knowledge than a national corporation.
Local firms. This is where most Memphis security companies live. Outfits like Shield of Steel, Phelps Security, and a dozen smaller operators compete for commercial, residential, and event security contracts. The local tier is the most competitive and the most fragmented. Barriers to entry are relatively low in Tennessee (a Private Protective Services license from the TDCI, general liability insurance, and you’re technically in business), so new companies appear regularly.
The problem across all three tiers is the same: finding and keeping guards. The unemployment rate in Shelby County sat around 4.2% for most of 2019. In a tight labor market, security companies compete with Amazon warehouses, FedEx ground operations, and every fast-food restaurant in town for the same pool of workers. When Amazon’s starting wage hits $15 an hour and you’re offering $11 for a security guard who has to wear a uniform, stay awake on a 12-hour overnight shift, and deal with confrontational situations, the math doesn’t work for a lot of potential candidates.
Companies that have invested in higher wages, benefits packages, and career development programs have seen better retention numbers. Shield of Steel, for example, recruits heavily from the veteran and law enforcement communities, offering a work environment that appeals to people who want structure and accountability. Phelps Security raised their starting pay in 2019 and reported modest improvement in turnover, though the problem is far from solved.
Technology Shifts
Two technology trends defined the Memphis security market in 2019: the explosion of cloud-connected cameras and the growing adoption of mobile patrol apps.
Ring, Nest, Arlo, and Wyze flooded the residential market with affordable cameras. A Memphis homeowner can now monitor their entire property from a smartphone for under $200 in hardware. That’s changed the dynamic for residential security companies, who increasingly compete against DIY solutions that cost a fraction of a monitored service.
The commercial side has moved toward integrated platforms that combine camera feeds, access control, and alarm monitoring into single dashboards. Companies like Verkada and Rhombus have gained traction with Memphis businesses looking for modern alternatives to the traditional analog camera and DVR setup.
On the guard services side, mobile patrol apps like TrackTik and Silvertrac have made it harder for security companies to bill for patrols that don’t actually happen. GPS-tracked check-ins, photo documentation, and real-time incident reporting give clients visibility they didn’t have five years ago. Companies resisting this technology are losing bids to competitors who’ve adopted it.
The flip side of the technology trend: it hasn’t reduced the need for humans. Cameras don’t confront trespassers. Access control systems don’t de-escalate arguments. For all the automation talk, the core of the security business in Memphis is still a trained person standing at a post, walking a property, or responding to an alarm.
Regulatory Changes
Tennessee made several regulatory changes in 2019 that affect the security industry:
The armed guard training requirement remained at 48 hours of instruction, which some industry professionals consider insufficient. A bill to increase the requirement to 72 hours was introduced in the state legislature in early 2019 and failed to advance past committee. The Tennessee Association of Licensed Security Professionals (TALSP) supported the increase, arguing that 48 hours isn’t enough time to adequately prepare an officer for armed duty. Opponents cited cost concerns for small security companies that would need to fund the additional training.
The concealed carry in churches bill (HB 1264) passed in 2019, allowing permit holders to carry firearms in houses of worship unless specifically prohibited by the church. While this doesn’t directly regulate the security industry, it created new business opportunities for security companies offering church security consulting, training, and guard services.
Tennessee also updated its regulations around security company advertising, requiring companies to display their PPS license number in all marketing materials. The TDCI increased enforcement actions against unlicensed operators in 2019, revoking several licenses and issuing fines to companies operating without proper credentials.
Major Contracts and Industry Moves
Several notable contract changes shaped the Memphis security market in 2019:
FedEx, the city’s largest private employer, continued to consolidate its security vendor relationships. The trend at FedEx has been toward fewer, larger providers who can service multiple facilities under standardized contracts. This favors national firms like Allied Universal and makes it harder for local companies to compete for FedEx work directly, though some maintain sub-contractor relationships.
The Memphis Housing Authority issued new security contracts for several public housing properties, citing resident safety concerns. These contracts emphasized community-oriented security approaches, with guards expected to know residents by name and function as a visible, approachable presence rather than an enforcement-first operation.
St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital expanded its campus security operations in 2019 as part of its ongoing $7 billion expansion. The hospital’s security needs are unique: protecting a medical research campus with high-value intellectual property, managing visitor flow to a facility that treats critically ill children, and maintaining a welcoming environment that doesn’t feel institutional.
Several Memphis hotel properties, including locations in the Downtown and Overton Square areas, added or expanded security contracts in 2019. The growth in Memphis tourism (the city attracted about 12 million visitors in 2018) has made hospitality security a growing niche.
Predictions for 2020
I don’t have a crystal ball, and the security industry doesn’t lend itself to precise forecasting. That said, several trends seem likely to continue or accelerate in 2020:
Wages will rise. The labor market isn’t loosening anytime soon. Security companies that don’t raise pay will lose their best guards to competitors who do, or to non-security employers who offer better compensation for less demanding work. Expect Memphis guard rates to increase by $1 to $2 per hour across the market.
The Allied Universal / G4S merger will reshape the market. If the deal closes as expected, the combined company will control a massive share of the Memphis security market. Smaller firms may actually benefit from the disruption, picking up clients who get lost in the merger integration or who prefer to work with a company they can visit in person.
Camera technology will keep improving and getting cheaper. 4K cameras with AI-powered motion detection are already on the market for under $100. By the end of 2020, expect these systems to become standard in commercial applications. Security companies that don’t offer technology integration alongside guard services will find themselves losing relevance.
Church and house of worship security will become a defined market segment. The events of 2019, both nationally and in Tennessee, have pushed this from a niche concern to a mainstream demand. Companies that develop specialized church security programs, including training for volunteer teams, will find a receptive market.
Memphis crime rates will remain a driver of demand. Nothing in the current data suggests a dramatic shift in Memphis’s crime picture for 2020. The city will continue to grapple with homicide rates, auto theft, and property crime. That means continued demand for private security services at current or higher levels.
The Memphis security industry enters 2020 in a position of strength. Demand is high, the market is growing, and companies willing to invest in their people and technology are pulling ahead of those running on thin margins and outdated practices. The challenge isn’t finding work. It’s finding the people and processes to deliver on the contracts already in hand.
Marcus Johnson covers the Memphis security market for Memphis Security Insider. Reach him at [email protected].