Twelve months ago, I wrote that 2022 would be a defining year for security in Memphis. I had no idea how right that prediction would turn out to be.
This city buried 346 people to homicide in 2021, the worst year in its history. The expectation heading into January was that things might stabilize. That MPD’s new chief would get traction. That the SCORPION unit’s aggressive enforcement would push numbers down. That the post-COVID crime surge would ease.
Some of that happened. The homicide count is tracking toward roughly 300 as I write this, down about 13% from last year’s record. That’s real progress measured in human lives. It’s also still a staggering number for a city of 630,000 people.
What nobody predicted was that a single crime on a Friday morning in September would change the entire conversation about safety in Memphis. Or that a bar fight death in Nashville would reshape security guard training statewide. Or that the market for personal safety products would explode the way it did.
This is the story of 2022 in Memphis security. The numbers, the turning points, and what it all means for 2023.
The Fletcher Effect
On September 2, Eliza Fletcher went for a jog near the University of Memphis campus around 4:15 a.m. She never came home. Four days later, Memphis police found her body. Cleotha Abston was charged with her kidnapping and murder.
The facts of the case are well known by now. What matters for this industry review is what happened next.
Within 72 hours of Fletcher’s disappearance, security companies across Memphis started getting calls they’d never received before. Residential neighborhoods that had zero interest in private patrols were asking for quotes. Running groups were hiring escorts. Property managers were fielding demands from tenants for better lighting, cameras, and guard presence.
I talked to five security company owners in September and October. Every one of them reported a 30% to 50% increase in inbound inquiries after the Fletcher case. Two of them said they couldn’t staff the demand. One called it “the biggest spike in 28 years of doing this.”
The Fletcher case didn’t create Memphis’s safety problem. It crystallized it. The victim was a teacher, a mother, a marathon runner grabbed off the street in a neighborhood that people considered safe. If it could happen there, at 4 a.m. on a jog near the U of M, what did that mean for everyone else?
The answer, for thousands of Memphis residents, was: I need to do something. Buy a Ring camera. Hire a guard for the neighborhood. Get pepper spray. Download a safety app. Stop running alone.
The personal safety market in Memphis has been on fire since September. Local gun shops reported sales jumps. Self-defense class enrollment doubled at several Midtown and East Memphis studios. GPS tracking devices and personal alarms saw a run at local retailers.
For the private security industry, the Fletcher effect means the market has permanently shifted. People who never thought about hiring security are now thinking about it. That’s not going away.
The Numbers
By all available indicators, Memphis will close 2022 with roughly 300 homicides. The exact count will depend on the final days of December and how cases are classified. MPD’s year-to-date numbers through early December show we’re well below 2021’s record pace.
Here’s context those numbers need:
- 2021: 346 homicides (record)
- 2020: 332 homicides
- 2019: 198 homicides
- 2018: 186 homicides
The 2022 number is an improvement over 2021. It’s still 50% higher than anything the city saw before 2020. The two-year jump from the high 100s to the 300s is a structural change, not a blip.
Aggravated assaults have tracked in a similar pattern. Carjackings remain elevated, particularly in the Poplar-Highland area, around Wolfchase Galleria, and along the Summer Avenue corridor. Auto theft continues to be a significant problem across the metro, with Kia and Hyundai models targeted by the same social media-driven trend hitting cities nationwide.
Property crime overall is slightly down from 2021, though retail theft has surged at shopping centers. Managers at several Shelby County retail locations told me shrinkage is at record levels this year. That trend has driven demand for off-duty officers and uniformed guards at stores that never staffed security before.
MPD Under CJ Davis
Chief Cerelyn “CJ” Davis marked her second full year leading the Memphis Police Department in 2022. Her tenure has been defined by two competing realities.
On one hand, the department has made measurable progress. Homicides are down from 2021. The Real Time Crime Center on Union Avenue has expanded its camera network and response coordination. MPD has worked more joint operations with federal agencies, particularly on carjacking and gun trafficking cases.
On the other hand, staffing remains the department’s biggest vulnerability. MPD is hundreds of officers below its authorized strength. Recruiting hasn’t kept pace with attrition, and the national conversation about policing hasn’t made the job any more attractive. When a city can’t fill patrol shifts, it creates gaps that private security ends up filling.
Davis has been vocal about community engagement and data-driven policing. Her critics say the department still lacks accountability and transparency. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and the argument will carry into 2023.
SCORPION Operations
The Street Crimes Operation to Restore Peace in Our Neighborhoods unit has been one of the more visible tools in MPD’s crime-fighting strategy. SCORPION officers target hot-spot areas with high rates of aggravated assault, vehicle theft, and gun crime.
The unit’s approach is aggressive by design. Officers patrol in unmarked vehicles, initiate traffic stops, and pursue suspects who flee. MPD has credited SCORPION with significant gun seizures and arrests in neighborhoods where violent crime was concentrated.
The unit has its defenders and its critics. Supporters point to the weapons taken off the street and the targeted approach to high-crime areas. Critics argue that aggressive stop-and-arrest tactics create tension with communities and carry risks of escalation.
Whatever your view, SCORPION has become a major factor in how Memphis polices its most dangerous neighborhoods. The unit’s operations in Whitehaven, Orange Mound, Frayser, and North Memphis have been a constant presence this year.
Dallas’s Law Changes the Rules
In June, Governor Lee signed Dallas’s Law into Tennessee code. The law is named for Dallas “DJ” Barrett, a 22-year-old who died in August 2021 after a confrontation with security guards at Dierks Bentley’s Whiskey Row in Nashville.
An investigation found that four of the six guards involved were unlicensed. The armed guards had no training in de-escalation, restraint techniques, CPR, or first aid.
Starting January 1, 2023, all registered security guards in Tennessee will need additional training in:
- De-escalation techniques
- Safe restraint methods
- CPR certification
- First aid
The Tennessee Department of Commerce and Insurance (TDCI) will enforce the new requirements through the Private Protective Services division. Companies that don’t comply face disciplinary action.
For the Memphis security industry, Dallas’s Law is the most significant regulatory change in years. It raises the bar for every guard company, which means higher training costs, more administrative burden, and potential staffing challenges for firms that have been running minimal programs.
Companies that already invest in training will adapt without much trouble. Phelps Security runs its own training center. The national firms have corporate training infrastructure. The companies that will feel the squeeze are the smaller operators paying guards $11 an hour with four hours of orientation. Some of those firms may not survive the transition.
The law is also an opportunity. Better-trained guards mean fewer incidents, fewer lawsuits, and better outcomes for everyone. If Dallas’s Law raises the floor across the industry, that’s a win.
The Armed Guard Shortage
Memphis has a serious problem finding qualified armed security officers. This isn’t new, and it got worse in 2022.
Tennessee requires armed guards to complete additional firearms training and qualification beyond the basic unarmed guard registration. With Dallas’s Law adding de-escalation and first aid requirements on top of that, the pipeline for new armed guards is narrowing at exactly the moment demand is spiking.
Three security company operators I talked to said they turned down contracts this year because they couldn’t find enough armed officers. One firm lost a distribution center account because they couldn’t fill a night-shift armed post for three consecutive weeks.
The pay issue is central. Armed guards in Memphis typically earn $14 to $18 an hour. Amazon’s warehouse jobs on Holmes Road start at $17 to $19 with benefits. FedEx’s hub operation at the airport offers similar entry-level pay. When you can make the same money sorting packages without carrying a firearm and dealing with confrontations, the math isn’t complicated.
Until security companies can close that pay gap, the armed guard shortage will constrain the industry’s ability to meet demand.
Retail Theft Surge
Every retail security manager I’ve spoken with this year says the same thing: it’s worse than it’s ever been.
Organized retail crime hit Memphis hard in 2022. Groups hitting stores at Wolfchase Galleria, Oak Court Mall, and along the Germantown Parkway corridor have become bolder. Smash-and-grab incidents at jewelry stores and electronics retailers made local news multiple times.
National chains have responded by increasing security budgets for their Memphis locations. Several Shelby County Walgreens stores now have uniformed guards during operating hours. Target locations across the metro area have expanded their loss prevention teams.
For the private security industry, retail is one of the fastest-growing segments in Memphis right now. Guards who used to work warehouse posts are being reassigned to retail. The retail environment is harder to staff because it involves more direct confrontation with shoplifters, which brings higher liability and requires better training.
Personal Safety Market Boom
Separate from the corporate and commercial security market, 2022 saw an explosion in personal safety spending by individual Memphis residents.
The data points are everywhere:
- Local gun shops reported their strongest September since 2020
- Self-defense class enrollment at studios in Midtown and Cooper-Young doubled after the Fletcher case
- Ring doorbell camera installations spiked across Shelby County
- Apps like Noonlight and bSafe saw increased downloads in the Memphis metro
- Personal safety keychains and pepper spray became gift items at local boutiques on South Main
This market barely existed five years ago. Now it’s a real category, driven by residents who feel the city’s safety infrastructure isn’t keeping up. Whether that perception matches the data is debatable. The spending is real.
What to Watch in 2023
Five things will shape the Memphis security industry next year.
Dallas’s Law implementation. January 1 is the effective date. The first six months will show which companies prepared and which ones scramble. Watch for TDCI enforcement actions.
MPD staffing. If the department can’t close its officer gap, private security will continue absorbing the demand. That means a bigger industry, and also a bigger accountability question.
Armed guard pay. Someone is going to break the $20/hour ceiling for armed guards in Memphis. When that happens, it will force every competitor to follow. The companies that can afford it will win contracts. The ones that can’t will lose them.
Technology adoption. GPS tracking, mobile reporting, remote surveillance, and AI-driven analytics are coming to Memphis security whether local firms are ready or not. 2023 will be the year that technology separates the serious operators from the ones running on clipboards and cell phones.
The crime trajectory. If homicides continue declining, the pressure eases slightly. If they rebound, the market expands again. Either way, the post-Fletcher awareness isn’t fading. Memphis residents have decided they want more security, and that genie doesn’t go back in the bottle.
The Year in One Sentence
Memphis in 2022 discovered that public safety can’t be outsourced, ignored, or taken for granted, and the private security industry found itself at the center of the city’s response.
I’ve covered this beat for a long time. I have never seen a year where so many things changed so fast. The regulations are tighter. The demand is higher. The stakes are real in ways they weren’t three years ago.
2023 won’t be quieter. Get ready.