The first quarter of 2024 gave us enough data to identify where Memphis’s private security market is heading. Three months of hiring numbers, contract filings, and industry conversations paint a clear picture: demand is climbing, supply can’t keep up, and technology is filling some of the gaps.
Here’s what the numbers say.
Demand Keeps Rising
Memphis entered 2024 coming off a year where violent crime dominated local and national headlines. Record homicide counts in recent years, persistent property crime, and the ongoing fallout from the SCORPION unit disbanding all pushed businesses and property owners toward private security at rates the local market hasn’t seen before.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that security guard employment in the Memphis metro area grew by approximately 8% year-over-year through Q4 2023. Early 2024 indicators suggest that pace is holding. Job postings on Indeed and LinkedIn for security positions in the Memphis area averaged 15-20% higher in January and February 2024 compared to the same months in 2023.
This isn’t a Memphis-only trend. Nationally, private security employment has been growing at roughly 3-4% annually. Memphis is outpacing the national average by a wide margin, driven by local factors that aren’t going away anytime soon.
Mayor Paul Young took office in January 2024. His first quarter has coincided with continued uncertainty about MPD’s capacity. The DOJ pattern-or-practice investigation is still active. Officer recruiting remains difficult. The department’s authorized strength and its actual headcount sit far apart. When public policing capacity shrinks, private security demand expands. That’s exactly what’s happening.
The Hiring Crunch
Finding bodies is the industry’s biggest problem in Memphis right now. Unarmed guard positions turn over at alarming rates. Armed guard positions are even harder to fill and harder to keep filled.
Tennessee requires armed security officers to hold a valid armed guard license through the Private Protective Services division of the Tennessee Department of Commerce and Insurance. That means background checks, firearms training, and ongoing certification. The licensing process creates a bottleneck. Not everyone who wants to work armed security can qualify, and not everyone who qualifies wants to work the hours and conditions that Memphis’s high-crime environments demand.
Starting wages for unarmed guards in Memphis have inched up from the $13-15/hour range that was standard in 2022 to $15-17/hour in early 2024. Armed guards are seeing $18-22/hour, depending on the employer and the assignment. These are guard wages, not billed rates. The companies charging clients are billing $18-28/hour for unarmed posts and $25-40/hour for armed coverage, depending on the contract terms.
The gap between what guards earn and what clients pay reflects overhead that’s climbing across the industry. Workers’ comp insurance in Tennessee has risen for security companies. General liability premiums are up. Supervisory costs increase as companies scale. Recruiting and training new hires who may leave within six months creates a churn cost that doesn’t show up on any single line item.
Several hiring managers I spoke with described Q1 as “brutal.” One HR director at a mid-sized Memphis firm said she’s running three recruiting campaigns simultaneously and still can’t fill all her open positions. “We’re competing with Amazon, FedEx, every warehouse in the metro,” she said. “Those jobs pay similar money with less personal risk.”
She has a point. The FedEx hub at Memphis International Airport and Amazon’s distribution centers across the metro area absorb a huge share of the hourly workforce. A prospective security guard weighing $16/hour standing alone in a parking lot at midnight against $17/hour sorting packages inside a climate-controlled warehouse will often choose the warehouse.
National Chains vs. Local Firms
The competitive dynamic between national security companies and local firms has sharpened in Q1 2024.
Allied Universal and Securitas, the two largest private security companies in the country, have both expanded their Memphis operations. Allied Universal’s Memphis office has been adding account managers and recruiters. Securitas, fresh off its 2022 acquisition of Stanley Security’s electronic security division, is pushing integrated solutions that combine guard services with camera systems and access control.
These national firms bring scale advantages. They can absorb the cost of a bad month. They carry the insurance coverage that large commercial clients require. They have national contracts with companies like Walmart, FedEx, and hospital chains that guarantee a baseline of Memphis-area work.
Local firms compete differently. Companies like Phelps Security Group have built their Memphis reputation over years of relationship-driven work. They know the neighborhoods. They know the property managers. They know which apartment complex needs a specific type of guard and which warehouse requires a different approach. That local knowledge has real value. National chains cycle through regional managers every two or three years, and institutional memory suffers each time.
The Q1 data suggests both tiers are growing. National firms are winning the large commercial and industrial contracts. Local firms are holding ground in residential, small commercial, and community-based work. The middle tier, medium-sized regional companies, is getting squeezed from both directions.
Technology Acceleration
Memphis’s adoption of security technology jumped noticeably in Q1 2024.
The Connect Memphis camera network, a city-operated system of surveillance cameras in public spaces, continued expanding. Private businesses are tying into the network or building parallel systems. AI-powered camera analytics (software that detects loitering, perimeter breaches, or unusual movement patterns) went from a sales pitch to an actual line item in security contracts.
Several property management companies along the Poplar Avenue corridor installed AI camera systems in Q1. The technology isn’t replacing guards. It’s changing what guards do. Instead of walking a property and hoping to spot something, a guard in a monitoring room receives an alert when the system flags unusual activity. The guard then decides how to respond. It’s a different model, and early feedback from Memphis clients suggests it’s effective.
License plate readers (LPRs) are spreading through commercial parking lots and apartment complexes. A parking garage in East Memphis installed LPR technology at all entry and exit points in February. The system logs every plate, matches them against a database of stolen vehicles and outstanding warrants, and alerts security in real time. During the first month of operation, the system flagged three stolen vehicles.
The technology trend has an important hiring implication. Monitoring-room positions require different skills than patrol positions. Companies need operators who can manage multiple camera feeds, interpret alerts, and make quick decisions. Those roles tend to pay better and attract a different candidate pool than traditional guard work. A few Memphis firms have started recruiting from the military intelligence and IT communities rather than the traditional security guard pipeline.
Insurance as a Driver
Here’s a trend that doesn’t get enough attention: insurance companies are now requiring security as a condition of coverage in certain Memphis zip codes.
Property and casualty insurers have always factored location and crime rates into their underwriting. What’s new is the degree to which insurers are making specific security measures mandatory rather than advisory. A commercial property owner in a high-crime zip code like 38115 (Hickory Hill area) or 38109 (South Memphis) may be told that maintaining coverage requires 24/7 on-site security, a functioning camera system, or both.
This shifts the buying dynamic. Property owners who might have treated security as a discretionary expense now treat it as a fixed cost, like insurance itself. The contract becomes non-negotiable. It also changes the sales conversation for security firms. Instead of convincing a property owner that security is worth the money, the conversation starts with “your insurer says you need this.”
Q1 saw at least two large apartment complexes in the 38115 zip code add security contracts specifically because their insurers mandated it. One property manager described the insurer’s letter as essentially an ultimatum: add security or find a new carrier.
Contract Values and Market Size
Estimating the total private security market in the Memphis metro area requires some extrapolation, since no single data source captures it completely. Based on BLS employment data, average billing rates, and the mix of guard, patrol, and monitoring services, a reasonable Q1 2024 estimate puts the Memphis-area private security market somewhere between $180 million and $220 million annually.
That figure includes guard services, mobile patrol, alarm monitoring, camera installation and monitoring, and consulting. It doesn’t include cybersecurity or federal security contracts, which are separate categories.
Contract values have risen. A standard unarmed guard post that billed at $18-20/hour two years ago now bills at $22-26/hour in most cases. Armed posts have moved from $25-30/hour to $28-38/hour. Premium assignments like executive protection, high-risk environments, and event security for large venues command even higher rates.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ FedExForum, the Renasant Convention Center, and large-scale events at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium all generate significant security contract revenue. Q1 included several major events that required substantial private security staffing.
What Q2 Looks Like
Three things to watch as the second quarter begins.
First, the DOJ investigation. Any public findings or announcements will immediately affect the policing conversation and, by extension, the private security market. If a consent decree appears likely, expect another wave of businesses shifting budget toward private security.
Second, summer staffing. The security industry’s annual challenge is covering increased demand during warmer months (more events, more outdoor commercial activity, more late-night hours) while the hiring pool stays flat. Companies that can’t staff up for summer will lose contracts.
Third, technology pricing. AI camera systems and monitoring platforms have been dropping in cost. If that trend continues, smaller businesses that couldn’t afford integrated security technology in 2023 may enter the market in Q2 and Q3 2024. That expands the addressable market for firms that can sell and service the equipment.
The first quarter confirmed what many in the industry suspected: Memphis’s security market is growing faster than the people available to work in it. That tension will define 2024. Companies that solve the hiring problem, or find technology workarounds that reduce headcount requirements, will be the ones that capture the growth.
Everyone else will be scrambling to keep up.